America’s high-flood-risk counties lost a net 63,357 residents to domestic migration between mid-2024 and mid-2025 — nearly double the outflow recorded the year before, and the first collective net population loss those counties have posted in five years, according to a Redfin analysis combining Census Bureau migration data with First Street flood-risk assessments. Meanwhile, low-flood-risk counties gained nearly 70,000 residents on net over the same period — their largest annual increase since 2018.
This report covers what the current data actually shows about climate migration in America in 2026: which high-risk areas are losing residents, which are still gaining them despite the risk, and why climate is best understood as one factor among several rather than the dominant driver of any single household’s decision to move.
Quick answer: Climate risk is now a measurable, quantifiable factor in U.S. domestic migration — high-flood-risk counties are losing residents on net for the first time in five years — but it remains a secondary factor for most movers behind cost of living, job opportunities, and proximity to family, and some high-risk states like Texas continue to see strong net inflow despite elevated fire and hurricane exposure.
The Data: High-Risk Counties Are Losing Residents, But Unevenly
The Redfin/First Street analysis found the sharpest single-county losses in Miami-Dade County, Florida, which shed more than 72,000 residents on net — the largest outflow on record for the county — and Harris County, Texas, which lost more than 43,000. Both counties combine high flood exposure with rapidly rising homeowners insurance premiums, a combination researchers increasingly point to as the actual mechanism connecting climate risk to relocation decisions, rather than storm exposure alone.
A companion survey conducted as part of the same research found that among Americans planning to move within the next year, 16% cited concern about natural disasters or climate risk as a reason for their move — a figure that rose to 21% specifically among people planning an interstate move, where the decision involves a genuine fresh start rather than just switching neighborhoods.
Fire Risk Shows a More Complicated, State-Specific Pattern
Wildfire risk tells a less uniform story than flood risk. The same Redfin research found that America’s high-fire-risk counties saw a net inflow of 63,365 residents in 2023 — more people moving in than out — with much of that growth landing in Texas, where five of the ten highest-inflow fire-risk counties are located (Parker, Hunt, Grayson, Wise, and Midland).
California tells the opposite story. Among the state’s high-fire-risk counties, more residents left than arrived in 2023 — a reversal from 2022 that researchers flagged as a possible sign that Californians are growing more responsive to fire risk specifically, even as fire-risk counties in other states continue to grow. Five of the ten fire-risk counties with the largest net outflows nationally are in California, clustered around Napa, north of Lake Tahoe, and along the coast near Santa Barbara and Santa Cruz.
First Street’s Longer-Term Climate Migration Forecast
Beyond current-year migration counts, climate risk analytics firm First Street projects a much larger shift ahead. Its research estimates that roughly 5.2 million Americans will voluntarily relocate in 2025 alone to areas with lower climate risk, a number First Street projects will grow to a cumulative 55 million people by 2055 if current insurance and disaster trends continue. The same research estimates these population shifts, combined with rising insurance costs in high-risk areas, could erase as much as $1.4 trillion in American real estate value over that horizon.
First Street’s neighborhood-level modeling sorts U.S. census tracts into five distinct trajectories: Climate Abandonment (26% of tracts, already losing population and value), Risky Growth (31%, still growing despite elevated risk), Tipping Point (27%, approaching the threshold where risk starts suppressing growth), Economic Decline (11%), and Climate Resilient (5%, gaining both population and value). Notably, traditionally low-population states like North Dakota and Montana are flagged as climate-resilient growth destinations under this model — a very different profile from the Sun Belt states that have dominated general migration headlines.
Don’t Overstate the Causation
It’s tempting to read every high-risk-state population number through a climate lens, but the data doesn’t support treating climate as the primary driver for most movers. Coverage of the same Redfin research from HousingWire makes this point directly: even as rising insurance costs and intensifying disasters push some households out of risky areas, those people are frequently and quickly replaced by other movers for whom cost of living and proximity to family outweigh disaster risk as a priority. That’s precisely why high-fire-risk Texas counties can post strong net inflow at the same time high-flood-risk Florida counties post record outflow — the risk itself isn’t the only variable; affordability, insurance markets, and economic opportunity all interact with it differently by region.
A follow-up report from Claims Journal, published in June 2026, confirms the flood-risk outflow trend held into the most recent 12-month data window, reinforcing that this is an emerging pattern rather than a one-year anomaly — while still describing it as one contributing factor within broader U.S. migration trends, not a wholesale climate exodus.
How Insurance Costs Are Becoming the Real Transmission Mechanism
The consistent thread across the flood-risk data, the fire-risk data, and First Street’s neighborhood modeling is that insurance cost, not disaster risk in the abstract, is doing most of the work in pushing households to relocate. A home that floods once every fifty years but carries an affordable insurance premium behaves very differently in the migration data than a home with the same flood probability but a premium that has tripled in three years. This is also why researchers increasingly track homeowners insurance non-renewal rates and premium increases as leading indicators of future climate migration, ahead of the disaster events themselves.
Regional Breakdown: Gulf Coast, Pacific, and Mountain West
Climate migration doesn’t behave the same way in every risk category, and lumping “climate risk” into a single number obscures more than it reveals. Three distinct regional patterns emerge from the 2026 data:
- Gulf Coast and Southeast flood/hurricane exposure — the region posting the clearest outflow signal, led by Miami-Dade’s record 72,000-plus net loss. Rising insurance premiums, not the storms themselves, appear to be the dominant transmission mechanism here, since the outflow accelerated even in years without a major direct hurricane strike on the affected counties.
- Texas fire and flood exposure — despite carrying real wildfire risk in its western and central counties, Texas continues to post strong net inflow even into its higher-risk counties, suggesting the state’s broader affordability and job-market pull is currently outweighing climate risk as a deciding factor for most movers.
- California fire exposure — the one region where the reversal is clearest: high-fire-risk California counties moved from net inflow in 2022 to net outflow in the most recent data, even as the state’s overall population trends remain complex and shaped by many other cost-of-living factors beyond fire risk alone.
The takeaway is that “climate migration” isn’t a single national trend moving in one direction — it’s a set of regional insurance and risk dynamics that happen to be pulling in different directions depending on what else is happening in that region’s housing and job market.
What Homeowners in High-Risk Areas Are Doing Instead of Moving
Moving is the most visible response to climate risk, but it’s far from the only one, and the data on population trends alone doesn’t capture the full picture. Homeowners in high-risk but otherwise desirable areas are increasingly pursuing mitigation investments — elevated foundations, fire-resistant roofing and defensible space landscaping, flood barriers — specifically to preserve insurability and avoid the non-renewal notices that are becoming a leading trigger for relocation. First Street’s research on the insurance-driven mechanism behind climate migration suggests that policy non-renewal, more than the disaster event itself, is often the final trigger that converts a household from “staying and adapting” to “actively searching for a lower-risk destination.”
The Insurance Market Feedback Loop
There’s a compounding dynamic worth understanding: as more financially able households leave a high-risk county, the remaining insurance risk pool shrinks and skews toward properties insurers are less willing to cover affordably, which pushes premiums higher for those who stay, which in turn accelerates the next wave of outmigration. This is part of the mechanism behind First Street’s “Climate Abandonment” tract classification, which the firm’s modeling applies to roughly 26% of U.S. census tracts — areas already showing both population loss and declining property values in tandem, rather than one preceding the other by years.
Understanding this feedback loop matters for anyone evaluating a high-risk-area home purchase in 2026: today’s insurance premium is a much weaker predictor of your five-year cost than the trajectory of premiums in that specific county, which is shaped by how many of your future neighbors are likely to stay or leave.
A Practical Tip for Anyone Weighing a Move Away From a High-Risk Area
Before ruling a destination in or out based on general climate risk headlines, check your specific target ZIP code’s individual risk score and current insurance quote — risk varies enormously within a single county, let alone a single state. A property one mile from a floodplain boundary can carry a dramatically different insurance cost than one inside it, even in the same high-risk county.
Frequently Asked Questions About Climate Migration in America 2026
How many Americans are moving because of climate risk?
First Street estimates roughly 5.2 million Americans relocated for climate-related reasons in 2025, with that figure projected to reach a cumulative 55 million by 2055. A separate Redfin survey found 16% of all planned movers, and 21% of planned interstate movers, cite natural disaster or climate risk as a factor in their decision.
Are people leaving Florida because of hurricanes?
Miami-Dade County posted a record net outflow of over 72,000 residents in the most recent 12-month period tracked by Redfin, driven by a combination of flood exposure and sharply rising insurance costs — though Florida overall continues to rank among the top states for general inbound migration across most age groups.
Is Texas losing residents due to wildfire risk?
No — the opposite. High-fire-risk counties in Texas posted strong net inflow in the most recent Redfin analysis, with five of the ten fire-risk counties gaining the most residents nationally located in Texas, showing that fire risk alone isn’t outweighing the state’s broader affordability and job-market appeal.
Which state is losing the most people to fire risk specifically?
California. Its high-fire-risk counties posted a net outflow in the most recent data, a reversal from the prior year, with the largest losses concentrated around Napa, north of Lake Tahoe, and the coast near Santa Barbara and Santa Cruz.
What states are considered climate-resilient migration destinations?
First Street’s neighborhood-level modeling flags historically lower-population states like North Dakota and Montana as climate-resilient growth destinations, based on lower disaster exposure combined with more stable insurance markets.
Is climate change the main reason Americans are relocating in 2026?
No. Cost of living, job opportunities, and family proximity remain the dominant reasons cited across most national migration studies. Climate and disaster risk is a real, measurable, and growing factor — but it functions mainly through rising insurance costs in specific high-risk counties rather than as a nationwide primary driver.
Do rising insurance costs cause more climate migration than the disasters themselves?
The data increasingly points that way. Insurance non-renewal and premium spikes appear to function as the more immediate trigger for relocation decisions than the disaster events themselves, since outflow trends in places like Miami-Dade have accelerated even in years without a direct major storm strike.
What are homeowners in high-risk areas doing instead of relocating?
Many are investing in mitigation measures — elevated foundations, fire-resistant roofing, defensible space landscaping, and flood barriers — specifically to preserve insurability and avoid the non-renewal notices that often become the final trigger pushing a household to search for a lower-risk destination.
The Bottom Line
Climate migration in America is real and measurable in 2026, but it isn’t a single national story — it’s a patchwork of county-level insurance and risk dynamics layered on top of the same affordability and job-driven forces that have always shaped U.S. migration. High-flood-risk counties are losing residents for the first time in five years; high-fire-risk counties in Texas are still gaining them; and the deciding factor increasingly isn’t the disaster itself but what it does to the homeowner’s insurance bill.
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